The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.
The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.
Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
I've just always been a bit of a dork.
